In this article, it is generaling saying that we are not running out of oil just yet. We will reach our highest level in 2030 or 2050, so the study says. Experts/researchers say that there is still oil on this planet in such places like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq that we can still get oil from, therefore, oil supplies will keep growing in the next two decades.
What goes up must come down therefore I think we should prepare for when oil supplies gets low and we have to use other sources/reserves. If we do not plan ahead we might find ourselves in a bad situation. This whole article is just trying to be optimistic and keep people from panic.
Read my other article "Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower" that says the exact opposite about the "oil peak" in this article.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
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4 comments:
The deceiving thing about this article is that no one really knows when "peak oil" was or will be. At best it can only be predicted. It simply is not possible to guarantee. This means that one must be very wary of where the information is coming from. Such debates are always influenced by money and project marketing. In other words, the government can say that peak oil has already passed to try and generate a sense of alert in the general public, in order to be able to invest in non oil based energy sources. However it may also say that peak oil will not occur for at least 20 years, to generate a sense of comfort in the general public. It really isn't as easy as looking something up in a library, we simply do not know what the evolution of peak oil will be. There are a lot of determining factors such as technological advances that reduce the consumption of oil, or increase the efficiency of extraction, or simply identify new areas of exploration.
However the best guess suggests that we look at how many barrels are extracted every day, and compare that to the last 100 years. Unfortunately it looks like we have ceased to increase and in fact gradually begun to decrease. The best guess is that we have passed peak oil, however, this doesn't mean we cannot displace. There is about a 10 year margin as of right now where sources such as oil shale and tar sands can in fact displace peak oil approximately 20 years.
This article is very interesting because it is telling us that there is still more years left of petroleum than we think. It is saying that the peak will happen around 2030 instead of the next few years. I think that this is just another prediction and that we can’t really know until it happens, because just like all the predictions that have been made before and that have been wrong, this one could be wrong too.
There are various studies about when are we going to run out of oil supplies. I personaly believe that oil consumption will grow faster than ever in future 10 years. Even though this study shows that oil peak will not show before 2030, we still need do lots of preparation, like alternative fuels. And 2030 is not even cover our generation, what would happen to our next generation? I agree with author that certain preparation is necessary.
This article points out what we discussed in class that no one really knows when "peak oil" will hit. This is especially true because political factors and geological factors could change our fuel consumption at any time. I believe that peak oil will not hit until 2030 especially if we continue not to drill and make alternative energies more economical. I also believe that California may change its mind about its offshore drilling especially if it could eliminate some of its debt by taxing the oil. However anything can change in an instant based on our political and geological factors. I think we will find another fuel source as needed just as all of us somehow write our essays, and cram for our last finals.
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